John Fetterman's Swing-Vote Power Fades as Democrats Win a 54-Seat Senate Majority

Sen. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania was not on Tuesday’s ballot, but he became one of the main post-election talking points. Democrats won at least 54 Senate seats, according to The Philadelphia Inquirer. That means the party no longer needs Fetterman to pass its agenda, and a party switch by him would not change who controls the chamber.

Fetterman has broken with Democrats in high-profile votes since President Donald Trump returned to office. Before the election, some Democrats worried he could become the deciding vote if the party ended up tied or with a one-seat majority. That scenario did not happen.

How big is the new Senate majority?

USA TODAY reported that Democrats hold 54 seats to Republicans’ 44, with the races in Alaska and Mississippi not yet called. The Inquirer said the majority could grow if Democrats keep their leads in those two states.

Democrats also won in traditionally Republican states. These include Texas, where Democrats last won a Senate race in the 1980s, and Kansas, where the party ended a 94-year losing streak in Senate races, according to the Inquirer. USA TODAY also listed South Carolina among the seats Democrats flipped.

What does “Fetterman-proof” mean?

Critics online used the phrase after Tuesday’s results came in. The idea is that Democrats now have enough seats that Fetterman’s vote alone can’t sink their bills.

“You know who doesn’t matter anymore? John Fetterman,” wrote Adam Jentleson, Fetterman’s former chief of staff, who has since become an outspoken critic, as quoted by the Inquirer. State Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta, a Philadelphia Democrat who lost the 2022 Senate primary to Fetterman, wrote: “We just Fetterman proofed the US Senate.”

USA TODAY reached the same conclusion: with a strong majority, Fetterman’s vote “won’t be enough to be the deciding factor on Democrat-led measures.”

Is John Fetterman switching parties?

As of Wednesday, he says no. Fetterman has repeatedly denied that he will leave the Democratic Party, though speculation has continued, USA TODAY reported. In September, he raised his voice at reporters asking about it. In a video C-SPAN posted, he said: “I’m not going to be a Republican. You know, why can’t you guys just wait ‘til the midterm? And if I turn a Republican, then I’ll be a liar, then.”

Trump has encouraged a switch publicly. “It’s gonna be hard for him to get the nomination as a Democrat, but I’d love to have him as a Republican,” Trump told reporters on Oct. 10, according to USA TODAY.

Fetterman has named one condition. He told NBC News that if Democrats officially stopped supporting aid to Israel, “that’s a red line for me.”

If he did switch, he would join a long list of senators who have changed parties. USA TODAY pointed to former Sens. Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin, who left the Democratic Party to become independents. Either way, Democrats would keep the majority.

How has Fetterman voted?

USA TODAY reported that Fetterman has:

• Voted several times this year against war powers resolutions meant to limit Trump’s ability to attack Iran without congressional approval, sometimes casting the deciding vote
• Voted to confirm Trump nominees, including Pam Bondi as attorney general, Kristi Noem as Homeland Security secretary, and Markwayne Mullin as Noem’s replacement
• Stood out as a strong supporter of Israel

What did Fetterman do on Election Day?

Not much in public. The Inquirer reported that he did not comment on his party’s big wins Tuesday, though he posted a simple message earlier that day noting that polls were open. He did not campaign for any Democrats this year, in Pennsylvania or anywhere else, and did not push for Democrats to retake the Senate.

He has also had open disputes with some of his party’s nominees. One is Abdul El-Sayed, who won Michigan’s Senate race and will join Fetterman in the Democratic caucus. Politico reported that El-Sayed privately called Fetterman an “ogre” over the summer and said he would back a 2028 primary challenge. Fetterman responded by saying El-Sayed had “little man syndrome,” according to the Inquirer.

What about Fetterman’s 2028 reelection?

Fetterman’s current term runs through 2028. Trump suggested he would struggle to win a Democratic primary. El-Sayed has said he would support a challenger, according to the reporting cited above. Fetterman has not announced his 2028 plans in the coverage reviewed here, so anything beyond that is speculation for now.

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