Kalshi After Election Night: How Midterm Contracts Settle, and the Accuracy Debate Facing Prediction Markets

Election night is over, but for many people who traded midterm contracts on Kalshi or Polymarket, the next question is when, and whether, they get paid. Prediction markets drew record money into the 2026 midterms, and the results now coming in are the test the industry has been talking about for months.

This article is for general information only and is not financial or betting advice. Event contracts can lose their entire value.

How Kalshi settles midterm contracts

According to a guide from Covers, each Kalshi market has its own rules, listed under “Market Rules” on the contract page. Two times matter:

• Close time: when trading in the contract stops.
• Determination time: when Kalshi confirms the outcome using the source named in the rules.

For midterm contracts, Kalshi can resolve a market early through media consensus. If at least four of eight designated outlets have declared a winner and none has issued a contradictory call, the contract may settle, Covers reported. Those outlets are The New York Times, The Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ, CNN, Fox News, NBC News, CBS News and ABC News.

Winning contracts convert to $1.00 each and move into the user’s cash balance. For the “Who will control the Senate?” market, Covers said settlement is based on media consensus, with a fallback tied to the party of the Senate’s president pro tempore on Feb. 1, 2027.

How Polymarket differs

Polymarket writes its own contracts, so its timing may not match Kalshi’s. Its standard resolution process includes a two-hour challenge period, and disputes can extend that, according to Covers. Its Senate control market lists official state election information, Congress and “a consensus of credible reporting” as resolution sources.

Why your payout may be delayed

Covers listed common reasons a contract might not settle right away:

• A race is still too close to call, which was true of several contests as of early Wednesday
• A recount or legal challenge
• Waiting for official confirmation from the named source
• A combination contract waiting on another leg

Even after settlement, bank withdrawals typically take several business days on either platform, Covers noted.

The odds going in

On Monday, Nov. 2, traders on Kalshi gave Democrats a 74% chance of winning Senate control, the party’s highest level since that market opened, CNBC reported. In Iowa, the Polymarket market on the Senate race had moved to 50% for the Democrat, Josh Turek, from 42%. The AP called that race for Turek late Tuesday.

CNBC added that odds platforms do not use the methods of traditional polling and are not substitutes for polls. CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship, the network discloses.

The media deals

Bloomberg News reported that CNN, CBS News, Dow Jones and CNBC are among the news organizations with prediction-market partnerships. On election night, CNN said Kalshi odds would not appear on its “Magic Wall” or be referenced on air, and Fox News said its Kalshi deal “excludes any political coverage.” Media critics quoted by Bloomberg questioned whether such deals could hurt newsroom credibility.

Bloomberg also cited a Brennan Center for Justice study suggesting heavily lopsided odds may shape what voters believe about a candidate’s chances, raising concerns about turnout effects.

So were the markets right?

That verdict will take days, since some races are still being counted. Going in, The Guardian pointed to recent high-profile misses, including Brazil’s presidential runoff, where Polymarket gave Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva only about a one-in-five chance before he won, and Wisconsin’s August Democratic primary for governor.

Research cited by The Guardian found markets are generally well calibrated across many contracts, but a Vanderbilt study of the 2024 race found prices “often behaved in ways inconsistent with rational information aggregation.” A Kalshi spokesperson told Bloomberg that a growing body of independent analysis shows its markets are well calibrated.

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Earlier coverage: Kalshi and Polymarket Face Their Biggest Midterm Test as Election Bets Top $1.4 Billion (Nov 3)