Israel election: Netanyahu's bloc at 53 seats as Likud's 'stolen' claim draws pushback

Two days after Israel voted, the count has settled into a deadlock. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc is projected at 53 seats, opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot’s bloc at 48 and Arab-led parties at a record 19. No group is near the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.

Meanwhile, the fight has shifted from the numbers to the legitimacy of the vote itself. Netanyahu’s Likud party now claims the election was “stolen,” a claim Israeli election officials and police have pushed back on.

Important: These are still projections. Absentee “double envelope” ballots, cast by soldiers and diplomats among others, were still being counted Thursday, and results are due to be certified by Nov. 4.

Where the count stands now

Yesterday we reported Netanyahu’s bloc at 56 seats with about half of the ballots counted. As more votes came in, it slipped. Reuters reported that with nearly 86% of votes tallied, Israel’s three main broadcasters projected:

ABC News (Australia) reported that at that stage Likud was the largest party with 26 seats, down from about 28 earlier in the count, and Eisenkot’s Yashar party was on track for 21. Joint List leader Yousef Jabareen’s alliance was on track for 12 seats.

The Guardian reported that the final absentee tally is not expected to shift the results much.

Did Netanyahu win the election?

Not outright. His bloc leads but is eight seats short of a majority. Reuters reported that Netanyahu looks set to stay on as caretaker prime minister during coalition talks, possibly until another election next year. Guy Lurie of the Israel Democracy Institute told Reuters that a caretaker government formally has the same powers as a regular one, but also “a duty of restraint.”

Eisenkot told supporters that Netanyahu is “a caretaker prime minister, without a mandate or the people’s trust,” Reuters reported.

The ‘stolen election’ claim

Likud said in a statement, quoted by ABC News, that the election had been “stolen by Arab parties,” and that it was submitting evidence to electoral authorities. The Guardian reported that Netanyahu and his allies referred Arab-led parties to the Shin Bet security service, and claimed, without evidence, that Qatari money had been involved.

The pushback came quickly:

• Election officials: The Central Elections Committee’s acting director general, Dean Livne, said there was “no basis for claims of systematic violations of election integrity,” per the Guardian. The committee has still asked the Shin Bet to look into the foreign interference allegations and report back within a week.
• Police: Israeli police dismissed the claims, Hebrew-language media reported, according to the Guardian.
• Qatar: A foreign ministry spokesman called the accusations “ridiculous and dangerous.”
• President Isaac Herzog: He said the allegations must be “thoroughly investigated,” but warned against “tarnishing an entire community that sought to exercise its right to vote.”
• Ra’am: Leader Mansour Abbas said his party had “no connection whatsoever” to the matter and would fully cooperate with investigators.

Eisenkot warned against using the allegations to delay the swearing-in of the new Knesset, set for Nov. 10, the Guardian reported.

The coalition math, updated

The record Arab vote has made those parties potential kingmakers. Eisenkot’s bloc can’t reach 61 without them, but Eisenkot and key allies ruled out working with Arab parties during the campaign. The Guardian reported that the Joint List won’t join an Eisenkot government, but it has offered to back an Eisenkot minority government through tactical votes.

The other path is a unity government with Netanyahu. Likud officials are quoted in Israeli media as saying Eisenkot will have no choice, the Guardian reported, while other observers call that political suicide given his campaign pledge.

Herzog has urged leaders to “keep an open mind” and said Israel must do everything possible “not to return to another election,” according to ABC News.

Why it matters

Reuters reported that the prospect of a caretaker government without a majority hit Israeli markets: the shekel weakened about 1.6% and Tel Aviv’s main stock indexes fell more than 3%. A caretaker Netanyahu also keeps power over the war with Iran, Reuters noted. Turnout was 77.7%, the highest in more than two decades.

What happens next

• Final count: Absentee ballots are being tallied now.
• Certification: Due by Nov. 4 under Israeli law.
• Consultations: Herzog will meet every party once official results are in, then choose the leader with the best chance of forming a government.
• New Knesset: Sworn in Nov. 10.

FAQ

Earlier coverage: Israel election results: Netanyahu's bloc pulls ahead in the count but is still short of 61 seats (Oct 28)