Israel election results: Netanyahu's bloc pulls ahead in the count but is still short of 61 seats

Israel’s election picture has shifted overnight. Early exit polls on Tuesday, Oct. 27, gave the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot a slight edge. By Wednesday morning in Israel, with about half the ballots counted, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc had moved ahead. Neither side is at the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.

Important: These are partial official results, not final ones. The Times of Israel notes that votes cast in double envelopes, including soldiers’ ballots, are counted later and can move seats.

Where the count stands

The Times of Israel reported that with 55.4% of ballot boxes counted as of 7:43 a.m. Israel time (1:43 a.m. ET), partial Central Elections Committee results gave:

Ynetnews published a party-by-party breakdown with 49.7% counted:

Partial results per Ynetnews. Totals will change as counting continues.

According to the Times of Israel, three parties were below the 3.25% threshold at that point: the Reservists (2.7%), People of Israel (1.7%) and Charedi Public (0.2%). A party that crosses the line late could reshuffle several seats.

How the exit polls changed

Yesterday’s exit polls showed the opposition slightly ahead. The Guardian reported that later, revised exit polls on Israel’s major TV networks put the two blocs tied at about 51 seats each. The Guardian noted that Israeli exit polls are often revised and are “notoriously imprecise,” with the final count often moving by several seats.

Did Netanyahu win the election?

Not yet. His bloc leads the partial count but is about five seats short of a majority. Speaking to supporters in Jerusalem after 3 a.m. local time, Netanyahu did not directly claim victory, the Guardian reported. He said official results would show that “Likud is the largest party in Israel” and called for “a strong, right-wing national government.” He also said a government relying on Palestinian parties must not be formed.

Eisenkot told supporters in Tel Aviv that “the Israeli public has voted against Netanyahu’s service as Israel’s prime minister,” the Guardian reported. He also warned Netanyahu not to “use Israel’s security for your political needs.”

President Donald Trump told reporters he was “hearing that [Netanyahu] did very well” but said it was “a little bit early,” according to the Guardian.

The coalition math

The Guardian laid out the main paths:

1. Netanyahu adds seats. There is no obvious source for the extra seats his bloc needs, apart from defections.
2. Eisenkot reaches out to Arab-led parties. Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas has said his priority is to unseat Netanyahu. But Eisenkot has set four conditions for talks with the Joint List, and, as we reported yesterday, his ally Avigdor Liberman of Yisrael Beiteinu refused during the campaign to accept a government backed by Arab parties.
3. A minority government. A candidate could govern with case-by-case outside support. The Joint List has offered a “safety net” for anyone who ousts Netanyahu.
4. A unity government. Some commentators have raised a Netanyahu-Eisenkot partnership, like the 2020 Netanyahu-Gantz deal, though both camps would face strong pushback.
5. Another election. If no one forms a government, Israel goes back to the polls. It held five elections between 2019 and 2022.

Record turnout

More than 77% of eligible voters cast ballots, the highest in more than two decades and about 7 points above 2022, the Guardian reported, citing the Central Elections Committee. The AP said the record-turnout vote delivered a rebuke to Netanyahu. Arab-led parties are on track for a big gain from the 10 seats they held in the last Knesset, the Guardian noted, after record participation by Palestinian citizens of Israel.

What happens next

• More counting. The Guardian reported that a record 600,000 to 650,000 people may have voted at special polling stations, and those ballots are not expected before Thursday.
• Certification. Final results are due to be certified on Nov. 4, as we reported yesterday.
• The president’s choice. President Isaac Herzog will name the candidate with the best chance of forming a government. That person gets 28 days, with a possible two-week extension, per the Guardian. It took Netanyahu 58 days to form his last government after the 2022 election.

FAQ

Earlier coverage: Israel election results: Exit polls show anti-Netanyahu bloc ahead, but no one near a majority (Oct 27)