Israel election results: Exit polls show anti-Netanyahu bloc ahead, but no one near a majority

Israelis voted on Tuesday, Oct. 27, in an election widely seen as a referendum on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. As of Tuesday evening U.S. time, there was no clear winner. Exit polls from Israel’s three main TV channels show the parties opposed to Netanyahu with more seats than his bloc. His Likud is still on track to be the largest single party. Neither side is close to the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.

Important: These are exit poll projections, not final results. JTA notes that the official count can take hours or days, and final results are due to be certified on Nov. 4.

Exit poll results by channel

Polls closed at 10 p.m. Israel time (4 p.m. ET). Reuters compiled the three main exit polls:

Seat numbers are exit poll estimates compiled by Reuters. Some outlets reported slightly different bloc totals. The Jerusalem Post cited a 53-50 or 52-50 lead for Eisenkot’s bloc, depending on the channel.

What the official count shows so far

Very little so far. Israel’s Central Elections Committee had published only a tiny early sample of the vote around midnight Israel time. A nonpartisan tracking site put it at about 0.1% of the expected votes, which is far too little to be meaningful. Early counted ballots often come from small communities and can look very different from the final result, so don’t read anything into seat estimates based on them.

Did Netanyahu win the election?

Not clearly. The Guardian reported that the exit polls project Netanyahu’s governing coalition will lose its parliamentary majority, and the AP described the result as a sharp rebuke of the prime minister. Still, Likud beat Yashar head-to-head in all three polls. The Jerusalem Post noted that in Israel’s system, the largest bloc usually gets the first chance to form a government.

Eisenkot claims victory

Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief who leads the new Yashar party, issued a statement declaring victory. He said the results should give him the first right to form a government, according to the Jerusalem Post. As of that report, he had not yet spoken in public.

His path is complicated. Without the Arab-led parties, the opposition bloc falls short of 61 seats. The exit polls give those parties a combined 18 seats, which the Guardian called a record. JTA noted the Joint List and Ra’am held 10 seats between them in the previous Knesset. Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Liberman, part of Eisenkot’s bloc, refused during the campaign to accept a government backed by Arab parties, the Post reported.

What happens next

1. The vote count continues. It runs overnight and into the coming days. Seat totals can still shift by a few seats per party, especially for parties near the 3.25% threshold to enter the Knesset.
2. Results are certified. That is expected on Nov. 4, according to JTA.
3. Coalition talks begin. The AP said forming a government will likely take weeks of negotiation, whoever leads.

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