Texas Senate Race: James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton on Election Day, When Polls Close and What to Watch

Texas voters are choosing a new U.S. senator today, Tuesday, Nov. 3, and the race between Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton is one of the most closely watched contests of the 2026 midterms. As of early Tuesday evening, polls in Texas had not closed and no winner had been projected. Libertarian Ted Brown is also on the ballot.

The seat is open. Longtime Republican Sen. John Cornyn lost to Paxton in the GOP primary runoff in May, so Texas will have a new U.S. senator in January for the first time in 14 years, according to The Texas Tribune.

When do polls close in Texas?

Polls close at 7 p.m. local time statewide, and anyone in line by 7 p.m. must be allowed to vote under Texas law, USA TODAY reported. Most of Texas is in the Central Time Zone, which means 8 p.m. Eastern. El Paso and Hudspeth counties are in the Mountain Time Zone, so their polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern.

For official, up-to-date numbers, check the Texas Secretary of State’s election results site (electionresults.sos.state.tx.us) or your county elections office. Early returns can shift a lot as different counties report.

Why the Talarico vs. Paxton race matters

The Texas Tribune reported that a Talarico win would give Democrats their first U.S. Senate victory in Texas since 1988 and their first statewide win of any kind since 1994. It would also put Democrats in a strong position in the fight for Senate control. A Paxton win, after he beat Cornyn in the primary, would show the strength of the party’s MAGA-aligned wing and the durability of the GOP in Texas, the Tribune said.

Donald Trump carried Texas by 14 points in 2024. President Trump made a final pitch for Paxton on social media on the eve of the vote, USA TODAY reported, calling him “a true MAGA Warrior.”

What the final Texas Senate polls showed

Pre-election polls pointed to a competitive race, but polls are not results:

• New York Times/Siena (released Nov. 1): Talarico 50%, Paxton 43%, per USA TODAY.
• University of Houston Hobby School (Oct. 10-14): Talarico 48%, Paxton 46%, within the margin of error, per KPRC 2.

The Texas Tribune described the polling as showing Talarico leading “but well within the margin of error.” USA TODAY noted that the two were statistically tied for much of the summer after Paxton won the runoff.

Money and turnout

The race has drawn enormous spending. According to The Texas Tribune, Talarico raised more than $146 million this cycle, far more than Paxton. But a Republican effort funded mainly by Elon Musk put over $280 million into GOP ads during the general election.

Turnout before Election Day was high. More than 7.7 million Texans voted early in person or by mail, the highest midterm early-turnout rate on record in modern Texas, the Tribune reported. That’s about 2.2 million more early votes than in 2022, though fewer than the 9.1 million cast before the 2024 presidential election, per USA TODAY.

Where the candidates stand

• Talarico has run against what he calls a corrupt political system that rewards billionaires and makes life more expensive. He told KPRC 2 he would seek bipartisan support. He tied affordability to campaign finance reform and limits on congressional stock trading, and said he would support banning super PACs.
• Paxton, the three-term attorney general, has warned GOP voters that a Democratic win would bring high taxes and undo Texas’ conservative values, the Tribune reported. He has said he supports continued data center growth with conditions on power, water use and location, according to KPRC 2.

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