Kyle Larson can clinch a third NASCAR Cup title at Martinsville with a 73-point lead

Kyle Larson is one strong Sunday away from his third NASCAR Cup Series championship. He leads Denny Hamlin by 73 points with two races left in this year’s Chase, and he can wrap up the title at Martinsville Speedway this weekend, according to NASCAR.com and the AP.

How can Kyle Larson clinch the championship at Martinsville?

NASCAR.com’s clinching scenarios say Larson locks up the title if he scores 59 points at Martinsville, no matter what anyone else does. A race win plus four stage points would get him there. Yahoo Sports and NASCAR.com both laid out the same math.

What does Denny Hamlin need?

Hamlin’s job is to keep it close. According to the reported scenarios, Hamlin needs to leave Martinsville within 22 points of Larson to have a realistic shot at catching him in the season finale.

What is Kyle Larson saying?

Larson has been careful not to celebrate early. “I’m not getting ahead of myself,” he said, as quoted in reporting on his lead. The AP described his path to a third title as easier than his rivals’, and NASCAR.com’s weekly power rankings asked whether a Larson crowning at Martinsville is next.

Why it matters

A clinch at Martinsville would take the drama out of the season finale. If Hamlin cuts the gap, the last race becomes a two-driver showdown. Either way, Sunday’s short-track race now carries outsized weight for the championship.

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