White Christmas 2026 Forecast: Where the Old Farmer's Almanac Expects Snow on Christmas Morning

Christmas is still more than seven weeks away, but the first big holiday weather outlook is already out. The Old Farmer’s Almanac released its 2026 White Christmas forecast for the United States and Canada on Oct. 30, and the picture is mixed: snow for parts of the North and the mountain West, and a green (or brown) holiday for most of the South and the middle of the country.

Here is what the forecast says, what counts as a White Christmas, and how much weight to put on a prediction made this far ahead.

2026 White Christmas weather predictions for the USA

According to a region-by-region breakdown of the Almanac’s map published by SnowBrains, three U.S. regions are forecast to have a White Christmas:

• Northeast
• Intermountain region (the interior West between the Cascades/Sierra and the Rockies)
• Alaska

Several more regions are listed as having a chance of a White Christmas:

• Pacific Northwest
• High Plains
• Lower Lakes
• Ohio Valley
• Southern Appalachians

Where the Almanac says it won’t snow

Much of the country is forecast to miss out. The Almanac lists no White Christmas for the Atlantic Corridor, the Southeast, Florida, the Deep South, the Upper Midwest, the Heartland, Texas-Oklahoma, the Desert Southwest, the Pacific Southwest and Hawaii. The Appalachians are split, with the northern part not expected to see snow on the ground and the southern part given a chance.

The Upper Midwest result may surprise some readers, since that region usually has some of the best historical odds of snow cover in late December. It is a reminder that the Almanac’s forecast and long-term climate averages are two different things.

Old Farmer’s Almanac forecast for Canada

North of the border, much of Canada is forecast to be white. SnowBrains reports the Almanac expects snow on the ground across Yukon, the Northwest Territories and Nunavut, as well as northern British Columbia, the northern Prairies, northern Ontario, northern Quebec and northern Newfoundland and Labrador. Southern Quebec and the western part of southern Ontario are also forecast to have a White Christmas, while eastern southern Ontario and southern British Columbia have a chance.

What counts as a White Christmas?

A White Christmas doesn’t require snow falling on Dec. 25. Under the National Weather Service definition cited by SnowBrains, it means at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning. A storm a few days earlier can do the job even if Christmas Day itself is clear.

How reliable is a forecast this early?

Treat it as a fun early look rather than a firm call. The Almanac builds its long-range forecasts with its own methods, and conditions can change a lot between early November and late December. National Weather Service forecasts become meaningful only about a week or so out.

For context, NOAA keeps a map of historical White Christmas odds based on 1991-2020 climate data. Those odds are highest across northern states and in mountain areas and much lower across the South and parts of the West. Those figures are long-term averages, not a prediction for this year.

Bottom line

If you’re dreaming of a snowy Christmas, the Almanac’s early outlook favors the Northeast, the Intermountain West and Alaska, with a coin-flip-style chance around the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, High Plains and Pacific Northwest. Everyone else should probably plan on a green holiday, and check the real forecast again in mid-December.